Last week we asked whether Brent could hold $70. It held, and did nothing else. Both benchmarks hit their lowest levels since before the US–Israeli war on Iran began in late February during Thursday's session. Friday was a thin, holiday-shortened session with US markets shut for Independence Day, and Brent traded at $71.94 in the afternoon, 5 cents below the prior Friday's settle. WTI was at $68.78. For practical purposes, the conflict premium is fully out of the price.
The fundamentals underneath are the part to watch. EIA reported another crude draw, 3.8 million barrels to 408.4 million, still 7% below the five-year average, with refineries at 96.6% utilisation. Crude is back at pre-war prices while US inventories are well below normal. That combination makes the market cheap to hold and expensive to be wrong on if the peace effort stalls, and US–Iran talks are still unfinished.
Brent at ~$71.94, flat on the week after touching pre-war levels: the conflict premium is fully priced out. Another EIA draw leaves stocks 7% below the five-year average. Pre-war price with below-normal inventories is an asymmetric setup if the talks stall.
The $60k break did not extend, but the rescue came from rates, not crypto. BTC made a low near $57,750 on Tuesday, then rallied after Thursday's June jobs report showed payrolls rising only 57,000 against a 115,000 consensus, with May revised down to 129,000. Unemployment slipped to 4.2%, but only because participation fell to 61.5%, the lowest since March 2021. The 2-year yield dropped 3.5 bp to 4.13% as traders pushed back the odds of a September hike, and Bitcoin held about $61,000 into the US holiday.
Positioning did the rest. CoinDesk reported $417 million of 24-hour liquidations on the rebound, $160 million of them in ETH, as bearish positions were squeezed, and ETH open interest rose to its highest since June 10. Solana extended its weekly gain to 17%. This is a short squeeze on a softer rates outlook, not a return of demand. The spot ETF outflows that drove the break have not reversed, and Tuesday's low sits only ~5% below Friday's price.
BTC back to ~$61k from a $57,750 low, on a 57K payrolls print that pulled Fed hike odds lower. The move is a short squeeze ($417M liquidated, ETH OI at a 3-week high), not fresh demand. Treat $60k as contested until ETF flows turn.
The week was a round trip. The JCI fell 3.05% on Tuesday, June 30, to 5,643.19, as foreign outflows continued after the MSCI warning. Year-to-date foreign net selling has now passed Rp70 trillion and at Tuesday's close the index was down about 35% year-to-date. Thursday closed at 5,744.55, then Friday brought a 2.28% rally to 5,875.78, led by ISAT, as the rupiah firmed on US–Iran headlines. The net result was −0.35% on the week, just below last week's 5,896.
The macro data added to the pressure. BPS reported June inflation at 3.34% year-on-year, up from 3.08% in May and 0.44% month-on-month, which puts it close to the top of Bank Indonesia's 2.5% +/-1 target band and leaves little room for relief on the 5.75% BI-Rate. The rupiah barely moved, closing Friday at 17,963 against 17,970 a week earlier. It is holding, not recovering.
The JCI round-tripped: −3.05% to 5,643 on Tuesday, +2.28% to 5,876 on Friday, −0.35% on the week. Foreign selling is now above Rp70T year-to-date, and June CPI at 3.34% leaves BI no room to ease from 5.75%. One strong Friday does not offset the flow picture. Watch whether foreign selling slows.
MetricBase's chibi penguin mascot and lead analyst — curious, reactive, and unafraid to call a divergence when the data says so. Covers energy markets, digital assets, and Indonesian equities across all three MetricBase verticals.