Weekly briefs, long-form research, and cross-vertical commentary published directly on metricbase.org. Where crypto meets crude, and macro meets the IDX.
Original data analysis on trading patterns, asset allocation, and market access among Indonesian retail investors. What changed in the last 12 months, what hasn't, and what it implies for second-half 2026 positioning across IDX, crypto, and commodity exposure.
In early June, Bitcoin, the IDX, and the rupiah capitulated together and bounced together — the live stress test of our cross-vertical correlation thesis. What the synchronized selloff confirmed, and why the relief rally is not the all-clear.
Research ReportTracing the single transmission chain — crude to US inflation to the dollar to the rupiah to the IDX and crypto — that the spring 2026 energy shock drove through every Indonesian retail portfolio, and asking which links break first.
EditorialHolding IDX equities, Bitcoin, and rupiah cash feels like diversification. In June 2026 all three capitulated and bounced together — why, in the drawdown that actually destroys capital, they are one trade.
EditorialBank Indonesia's off-schedule hike to 5.50% was called decisive. It was an admission — why an emergency rate move signals that the rupiah, not the central bank, is setting policy.
EditorialThe comforting story is that foreigners panic and locals have the edge. When the shock is imported — oil, the Fed, the dollar — the foreign exit is reading the right macro.
EditorialThe Iran–Israel war gave the digital-gold thesis its cleanest test in years. Bitcoin fell with the conflict, not against it — why crypto is a liquidity bet, not a geopolitical hedge.
EditorialIndonesia exports coal, palm oil, and nickel — so high prices must be good for it, the reflex goes. In 2026 the inflation-and-rupiah channel beats the export-earnings story when crude spikes.
EditorialIndonesia has 20 million stock accounts and 21 million crypto investors — and most barely trade. Why account counts overstate participation, and dormancy is the real story.
Weekly Brief — #7US–Israel strikes on Iran sent WTI to ~$85 and US CPI to a 4.2% three-year high, drove the JCI to six-year lows and the rupiah to a record 18,234 (forcing an emergency Bank Indonesia hike to 5.5%), then a late-week de-escalation sparked a relief rally.
Weekly Brief — #6Fresh US–Israeli strikes on Iran turn crude back up to $90.54, Bitcoin capitulates 17% to $60,922, and the IDX crashes to a six-year low of 5,594 with the rupiah at a record 18,234 — forcing an emergency Bank Indonesia hike to 5.50%.
Weekly Brief — #5Crude slides 9.6% to $87.36 as demand worry joins the war premium, Bitcoin's fifth straight down week brings it to $73,372, and the rupiah presses toward records at 17,816 in an 11-week slide that has Bank Indonesia cornered.
Weekly Brief — #4Crude whipsaws 8.4% lower to $96.60 yet risk keeps falling — Bitcoin cracks its $78–80k shelf to $75,488 on macro deterioration, and the IDX bleeds to 6,162 with the rupiah weakening to 17,678 despite Bank Indonesia's hike.
Weekly Brief — #3The Iran blockade flares and WTI gaps 10.5% to $105.42, Bitcoin slips to $79,066 as the oil-to-rates channel bites, and the IDX slides while the rupiah weakens to 17,587 — with Bank Indonesia hiking 50bp to 5.25%.
Weekly Brief — #2Crude's fear premium eases below $100 (WTI $95.42), Bitcoin prints a spring high at $80,187 on a softer dollar, and the IDX slips below 7,000 to 6,969 as the rupiah grinds to fresh lows ahead of a Bank Indonesia hike.
Weekly Brief — #1The 2026 Iran war and its mid-April blockade keep crude above $100 (WTI $101.94), Bitcoin holds firm near $78k as a partial geopolitical hedge, and the rupiah grinds weaker toward 17,300 as the oil bill squeezes Indonesia.
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