Last week's watch list had Brent through $90 and the Houthi threat to the Red Sea. Both happened within days. The week opened with the US naval blockade of Iran's ports reimposed as of July 18, and early in the week the Houthis declared a maritime blockade of their own against Saudi Arabia. On Thursday they said they had hit two Saudi oil tankers with drones and missiles, and Trump said the US would hold Iran responsible for any further attacks. Brent jumped about 7% to settle at $100.69, its first close above $100 since May 26. Crude is now up more than 30% in July.
Friday brought the first real pullback. Brent (September) fell 3.9% to $96.78 and WTI 3.1% to $89.31, the biggest one-day drop since late June. Reports that Pakistan was exploring a path back to US–Iran talks landed alongside reports that Trump was discussing wider strikes with his cabinet. Brent still gained about 10% on the week. With Iran hitting Gulf infrastructure and the Houthis now targeting the Red Sea route Saudi Arabia uses to bypass Hormuz, both of the region's main export exits are under threat at once.
Brent closed above $100 for the first time since May ($100.69 Thursday) and settled at $96.78 Friday, ~+10% on the week. The Houthi blockade puts the Red Sea bypass at risk alongside Hormuz. Friday's 3.9% drop on talk of renewed diplomacy shows how headline-driven the premium still is.
Last week we noted the $65k ceiling. Bitcoin tested it again, climbing to about $66,100 on Tuesday, a one-month high, as the chip trade that had dragged it down reversed. It pulled back midweek as oil passed $85 and inflation worries returned, but by Friday it was holding near $65,000 while Brent traded around $97. CoinDesk noted that crypto was broadly green on Friday morning despite the oil move. BTC is up roughly 13% from its early-July lows, putting July on track to be its best month since January.
The more notable data point: Bitcoin held its level on the day the "Mag 7" had their worst session since 2025, an AI-led selloff of roughly $800 billion. Two weeks ago we wrote that crypto had started trading as tech beta. This week it did not follow tech down. One week is not a regime change, and the ceiling is still the ceiling. But crypto absorbed $100 oil, a mega-cap tech rout and renewed US–Iran threats within days, and it is flat.
BTC held ~$65k through $100 oil and the Mag 7's worst day since 2025, after a one-month high near $66,100. That is the first sign of decoupling from tech in weeks. A weekly close through $66k confirms it; until then the range still rules.
Bank Indonesia held the BI-Rate at 5.75% at its July 21–22 meeting, its first pause after three hikes totalling 100 bp this year. The Deposit and Lending Facility rates stayed at 4.75% and 6.50%. The stated goal was rupiah stability with inflation inside the 2.5% +/-1 band. Holding with Brent near $100 is a judgement that the rupiah can absorb the oil shock without another hike. It is a bet, not a certainty.
The rupiah mostly vindicated it, moving between 17,894 and about 17,990 before closing Friday at 17,963, 0.23% weaker on the week and still below 18,000. The JCI reached 6,315 by Thursday's close, then fell 1.88% on Friday to 6,196.43 as every sector fell, led by consumer discretionary and basic materials (each about −3%). It still finished up 0.34% on the week. The index is holding above 6,000, but the latest gains came on thin conviction.
BI held at 5.75%, its first pause after 100 bp of hikes, and the rupiah stayed below 18,000 (17,963) with Brent near $100. The JCI still finished +0.34% at 6,196 despite a broad −1.88% Friday. The rupiah staying below 18,000 is what justifies BI's hold; a break above it reopens the hike debate.
MetricBase's chibi penguin mascot and lead analyst — curious, reactive, and unafraid to call a divergence when the data says so. Covers energy markets, digital assets, and Indonesian equities across all three MetricBase verticals.