We asked whether traffic would actually use the Iran–Oman lane. Instead the tanker war resumed. US Central Command began striking IRGC targets over the weekend, saying Iran was trying to use rockets to plant new sea mines in the strait. The exchanges early on Wednesday were the heaviest in more than a month. Iran said two tankers had hit naval mines, and it claimed attacks on Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq, then fired missiles at Kuwait on Thursday. CNN described the US operation as a record day: 60 targets struck to protect 18 million barrels of oil in transit.
Crude rebuilt its war premium in five sessions. WTI settled Friday at $91.48, up $8.08 or 9.7% on the week, its strongest weekly advance since mid-July. Brent settled at $92.68, up about 7.6% on a comparable-contract basis. Only four vessels crossed Hormuz on Thursday against a 10-day average of 15, and falling US crude stocks and a very tight diesel market added to the pressure. Last week's workaround, a lane under Iranian control, lasted about a week once the shooting resumed.
Renewed US–Iran fire and mined tankers cut Hormuz to four transits on Thursday, and WTI posted its biggest weekly gain since July (+9.7% to $91.48). The temporary lane did not survive the fighting. $100 is back in play for both benchmarks.
The breakout held above ~$75k, but the macro turned harder. BTC rallied on Thursday and closed that day at $81,275. Then Friday's August jobs report showed payrolls up 162,000 against a 56,000 consensus, with July revised up from −23,000 to +21,000 and unemployment at 4.1%. With Warsh already leaning towards a hike, September hike expectations "shot higher", in CoinDesk's words. Bitcoin fell about 2% to below $80,000.
Crypto.com's daily candle closed Friday at $79,689, still up 2.4% on the week and holding the August breakout. ETH closed at $2,457, roughly flat (+0.6%), leaving ETH/BTC near 0.031. The concern is the combination: $91 crude plus a strong labour market plus a Fed chair who called inflation "concerning" makes a September hike the base case. Bitcoin has absorbed hawkish signals since August, but it has not yet faced an actual rate hike.
A 162K payrolls beat on top of $91 oil makes a September hike the base case, and BTC slipped back below $80k (close $79,689) while holding +2.4% on the week. The breakout is intact, but it has not faced an actual hike yet. Reduce leverage into the FOMC.
Indonesian equities looked through the Gulf. The JCI jumped 1.09% on Thursday to 6,667.89, gave back 0.47% on Friday to 6,636.47 after opening as high as 6,695, and ended the week up 1.82% from 6,518.12. That is a new high for the rally that began at June's 5,643 low, and it came in a week when WTI rose almost 10%.
The rupiah held up too. It firmed 0.21% on Friday to 17,642, helped by a softer dollar after dovish comments from Fed officials, and gained about 0.3% on the week. Over the summer, the rupiah has become less sensitive to oil, with BI's 5.75% policy rate as the anchor. A Fed hike in September would test that directly: the rupiah's rate premium is its main defence, and a US hike narrows it.
The JCI +1.82% to 6,636, a new rally high, and the rupiah firmed to 17,642 with WTI up almost 10%. Indonesia is trading its own rates and flows, not the Gulf. The risk is a Fed hike narrowing the rupiah's rate cushion in September.
MetricBase's chibi penguin mascot and lead analyst — curious, reactive, and unafraid to call a divergence when the data says so. Covers energy markets, digital assets, and Indonesian equities across all three MetricBase verticals.