Last week we asked whether WTI would hold $100. It did not. US crude fell back below $100 on Monday after President Trump said he was open to talking to Iran at the UN. It snapped a five-day losing streak on Wednesday when Iran said it would not surrender, then fell about 2% on Friday as hopes built for a path to ending the war and reopening Hormuz. Iran said it would restart talks toward a final deal if the US met the conditions of the earlier MoU. WTI settled at $92.41, down $7.89 or 7.9% on the week.
Brent did not follow. It settled at $104.32, up 0.4%, as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia kept Gulf supply risk alive. The rest of the gap came from Washington: talk of a 90-day ban on US diesel exports, which the White House denied, would force US refiners to run less crude. WTI traded as much as $12.02 under Brent on Thursday, the widest gap since May 6. Freight at about three times pre-war rates stops cheap US crude reaching Asia. Our research report covers why that matters for Indonesia, which prices its crude off Brent.
Truce hopes and diesel politics pushed WTI down 7.9% to $92.41 while Brent held $104.32. The relief went to US crude, not to the barrel Asia buys. The gap closes from Brent's side only if US–Iran talks actually reopen Hormuz.
Last week's question was whether BTC could hold $80k after the hike and the failed Clarity vote. It went further. On Monday, falling oil and softer yields pushed Bitcoin to about $87,400 on Crypto.com, its highest since January and about 17% above the September 16 low near $75,000. Shorts clustered around $80,000–82,000 were forced to cover, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $999 million that day, their best day in nearly a year.
The bond market then took some of it back. On Wednesday the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 17 bp to 5.12%, its highest since 2007, after S&P Global's September survey showed US business activity growing at its fastest pace since July 2021, with energy pushing up input costs. That kept a second Fed hike in play. BTC slipped to a low near $82,850 on Thursday and closed Friday at $84,096, still up 4.0% on the week. ETH closed at $2,692 (+3.1%), with ETH/BTC steady near 0.032. On the rules side, the CFTC updated its crypto FAQs on tokenized collateral and blockchain recordkeeping.
A short squeeze and $999M of ETF inflows took BTC to an eight-month high near $87,400, and a 5.12% 10-year pulled it back to $84,096. Bitcoin is now trading on yields more than on oil. Next test: Wednesday's PCE print and whether the 10-year holds above 5%.
Bank Indonesia answered last week's question by holding. At Governor Destry Damayanti's first meeting on September 22–23, the BI-Rate stayed at 5.75% for a third straight meeting, as 29 of 32 analysts in an LSEG poll expected. Instead of a hike, BI cut hedging costs: premiums on swaps tied to portfolio flows fell by up to 25% and on domestic NDFs by up to 30%. The rupiah firmed 67 points to about 17,818 on the day, then was back at 17,916 on Thursday. It closed Friday at 17,902, down 0.8% on the week and still short of 18,000. Our editorial argues the hold was the right call.
Equities took the 10-year's jump and the weaker rupiah together. The JCI fell 3.09% on the week to 6,241.89, including a 0.90% drop on Friday. Foreign investors sold more than Rp3 trillion net over the week, led by the big banks, after Rp1.79 trillion the week before. Their net selling for 2026 is now Rp77.52 trillion. That is the third straight weekly fall, and the index is now about 6% below the 6,636 high of September 4. Average daily trading value dropped 21% to Rp11.98 trillion.
BI held at 5.75% and cut hedging costs instead, and the rupiah's bounce lasted one session before it closed at 17,902. The JCI fell 3.09% to 6,241 on more than Rp3T of foreign selling. The rupiah is trading on Brent, not on BI's rate. 18,000 is the line to watch.
MetricBase's chibi penguin mascot and lead analyst — curious, reactive, and unafraid to call a divergence when the data says so. Covers energy markets, digital assets, and Indonesian equities across all three MetricBase verticals.