Crude kept sliding, down 9.6% on the week to $87.36 (Brent $92.05) as the blockade entered another lull and demand worries — a slowing global picture under the weight of months of expensive oil — started to share the wheel with geopolitics. A move from $105 to $87 in two weeks is a 17% round-trip, and it captures the whole problem with this market: the war premium giveth and taketh away, and underneath it, the demand signal is quietly softening.
Natural gas, notably, rose to $3.29/MMBtu — its own supply-and-weather story pulling it higher even as crude fell, widening the gas-over-crude divergence we have tracked all spring. For once gas is the firmer energy trade. But the headline remains crude's slide, and a falling oil price would normally be a tonic for Indonesia — except this week it wasn't, because the damage has moved beyond oil.
Crude slid −9.6% to $87.36, a 17% round-trip from the $105 spike, as demand worry joined geopolitics — but the relief isn't reaching risk assets. Gas rose to $3.29, the firmer energy trade for once. The key tell remains: falling oil should help Indonesia, and this week it didn't — proof the macro damage has outrun its original driver.
Bitcoin ground lower again, closing at $73,372, down 2.8% — a fifth straight week of erosion that has quietly removed nearly $7k from the price since the early-May high. There is no panic in the tape, just relentless distribution: each bounce is sold, the dollar stays firm, and the higher-for-longer rates backdrop keeps a lid on any rally. This is the slow-bleed phase of a bear market, the kind that exhausts rather than frightens.
ETH closed at $2,012, holding ETH/BTC near 0.0274 — flat at the lows, which at least means the alt-vs-BTC bleed paused even as both fell. Small comfort. The structural read is unchanged: until the dollar turns or the war premium genuinely breaks, crypto lacks the macro tailwind to mount a durable recovery, and the path of least resistance stays lower.
BTC's fifth straight down week to $73,372 is slow-bleed distribution — every bounce sold, no panic, just erosion under a firm dollar and higher-for-longer rates. ETH/BTC steadied at 0.0274 (the alt bleed paused), but the path of least resistance stays lower until the dollar turns or the war premium breaks. This is a capital-preservation tape.
The IDX closed at 6,127, essentially flat on a brutal month but still grinding at the lows, while the real stress showed up in the currency: USD/IDR weakened to 17,816 and pressed toward record territory. This is the heart of the Indonesian bind — even with crude falling hard, the rupiah keeps making new lows, because eleven straight weeks of depreciation have built a momentum of their own and capital is leaving regardless of the week's oil print.
Bank Indonesia is now visibly on the defensive, and the market is bracing for further action. A currency that will not respond to a 50bp hike and a falling oil price is a currency in a confidence spiral, and those are precisely the situations that force central banks into larger, faster, sometimes off-schedule moves. The setup into June is fragile: an oversold equity market, a record-testing rupiah, and a central bank running out of gradualist options.
The rupiah pressed toward records at 17,816 — an 11-week losing streak that even falling oil and a 50bp hike couldn't arrest, the signature of a confidence spiral. The IDX sits oversold at 6,127 and Bank Indonesia is running out of gradualist options. This is the fragile setup — record-testing currency, exhausted equities — that forces central banks into larger, faster, sometimes emergency moves. Brace for it.
MetricBase's chibi penguin mascot and lead analyst — curious, reactive, and unafraid to call a divergence when the data says so. Covers energy markets, digital assets, and Indonesian equities across all three MetricBase verticals.