Last week's question was whether the de-escalation would hold. It did more than hold: on Wednesday, June 17, the US and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum that provides for commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz "with no charge, for 60 days" and sets up technical talks on Iran's nuclear programme. Crude repriced on the spot. Brent settled at $83.17 (−4.76%) and WTI at $80.75 (−4.87%), both the lowest settles since March 4.
Friday showed how thin the peace premium still is. The follow-up US–Iran talks in Switzerland were abruptly called off and Brent bounced 0.9% to settle at $80.57, with front-month WTI trading near $77.54 in the afternoon. That still leaves Brent roughly $9 below where it traded on the morning of June 12 (about $89.94). The physical data leaned tight, not loose: EIA reported an 8.3 million barrel crude draw for the week to June 12, with refineries running at 96.7%. Gas was the soft spot: a 73 Bcf storage injection took inventories to 2,759 Bcf, 5.8% above the five-year average.
A signed memorandum took crude to its lowest settle since March 4 (Brent $83.17 on Wednesday), and the collapse of the Geneva follow-up clawed back only part of it (Brent $80.57 Friday). The premium now trades on the paper deal. Barrels actually moving through Hormuz are what would make it permanent, and an 8.3M bbl US draw says the physical market has not loosened yet.
Last week we asked whether Bitcoin could hold above the ~$61k capitulation zone. It did, but without conviction. Fortune's morning snapshots put BTC at $63,360 on June 12, $64,940 on June 17 and $64,198 on June 18: a gain of about 1.3% on the week and a range of barely $2k. The US–Iran deal, the biggest macro de-risking of the quarter, moved crude by 5% in a day and Bitcoin by almost nothing.
The internals are not asking for more risk either. ETH traded at $1,747 on the morning of June 18, down from $1,785 on June 15, leaving ETH/BTC near 0.0272, with no sign of money reaching back out along the risk curve. The reason sits at the Fed. Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair, on June 17, held rates at 3.50–3.75%, but half of the 18 officials now pencil in a hike before year-end. After May's 4.2% CPI, the rate-cut tailwind crypto leaned on through 2024–25 has turned into a possible headwind.
BTC held the ~$61k floor but traded a ~$2k range through the biggest de-escalation of the quarter: $63,360 to $64,198 on Fortune's snapshots, +1.3%. ETH/BTC ~0.0272: no rotation into beta. Stay with quality over the curve; crypto is not trading the Gulf headlines this week, it is trading a Fed that has started talking about hikes.
The bounce extended, but it slowed. The JCI rose 2.82% on the week to 6,177.14 after last week's 7.38% rebound, and closed Friday up just 0.08% after trading between 6,117 and 6,215. Foreign investors kept selling into it: a net Rp904 billion for the week, taking year-to-date foreign net selling to about Rp68 trillion, with DSSA the stock they sold most.
Two things capped the move. Bank Indonesia hiked again at its scheduled June 17–18 meeting, adding 25 bp to take the BI-Rate to 5.75%, nine days after its emergency move. The rupiah still slipped to 17,804 on Friday from 17,860 a week earlier, 386 points inside its June 8 record low of 18,190. And the market spent the week positioning for MSCI: its global market accessibility review was released overnight into Friday, and the annual market classification verdict on Indonesia lands on June 23.
The JCI's +2.82% to 6,177 came against foreign net selling of Rp904bn and a second BI hike in ten days, to 5.75%. The rupiah at 17,804 sits 386 points from its 18,190 record. Tuesday's MSCI classification verdict is the binary for the bounce.
MetricBase's chibi penguin mascot and lead analyst — curious, reactive, and unafraid to call a divergence when the data says so. Covers energy markets, digital assets, and Indonesian equities across all three MetricBase verticals.