The talks we said were unfinished did not finish. Iran attacked commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the US answered on July 8 with two waves of strikes on more than 170 Iranian military targets, from Bandar Abbas to Chabahar and Bushehr. On Thursday the Revolutionary Guards struck two US bases in Kuwait and two in Bahrain. Trump called the ceasefire "over". Hormuz transits fell back to a near-standstill.
Crude repriced, but only partly. Brent gained about 5% on the week and WTI about 4%, with Friday's settle at $76.01 for Brent (−0.4%) and $71.41 for WTI after both backed off midweek highs. That is roughly $4 of premium back into a market that was trading at pre-war levels a week ago. It is nowhere near the spring's $100-plus, which suggests traders are treating this as a breakdown to be renegotiated rather than a return to full war. EIA reported a 3 million barrel crude build, the first after ten consecutive draws, helped by slower exports and SPR barrels moving into commercial stocks.
The ceasefire broke and Brent added only ~5% to $76.01: the market is pricing a breakdown to be renegotiated, not a return to full war. With Hormuz transits back near a standstill, that is a generous assumption. The EIA build (+3.0M bbl) is SPR-assisted and does not fix the tightness.
The $60k line held, and the week became a test of how much geopolitical risk Bitcoin now ignores. BTC dipped on Trump's Iran warnings, then rebounded 3.5% on Friday to nearly $64,000, ending the week up 4.2%. CoinDesk's summary: it absorbed an oil shock, a global bond selloff, a hawkish repricing of Fed expectations and two rounds of US strikes on Iran, and still rose, carried by a chip-sector rally and a weaker dollar.
The rates backdrop did not get easier. The June FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, showed a committee split between "many" who see rates within or slightly below the current 3.50–3.75% range at year-end and "many other" participants who see them above it. Kalshi traders put the odds of a 2026 hike at about 54%. Bitcoin rising through a war escalation and a hawkish Fed is a real sign of strength. A move that depends on chip stocks is also a sign of what it is correlated with now.
BTC +4.2% to ~$64k through a ceasefire collapse and a hawkish set of Fed minutes. That is resilience, but the driver was chip stocks and a softer dollar, not crypto demand. Hold quality; watch whether the move survives if the tech rally cools.
The JCI barely noticed the war. The index rose 0.83% on the week to 5,924.36, with a high of 5,986 on Tuesday and a low of 5,873 on Wednesday, and closed Friday up 0.20%. Six new listings debuted during the week. After a 35% drawdown this year, the market is doing what exhausted markets do: moving sideways on thin conviction, while last week's 5,643 low sets the floor.
The currency is where the stress shows. The rupiah weakened 0.56% on the week to close Friday at 18,065 spot, after touching 18,128 on Thursday. It is back above 18,000, and Thursday's level came within about 60 points of the June 8 record low of 18,190. Higher oil feeds straight into Indonesia's import bill and fuel-subsidy costs, and June CPI is already 3.34%. With the BI-Rate at 5.75%, a third hike is back on the table if the rupiah breaks its record.
The JCI edged +0.83% to 5,924 through the ceasefire collapse, but the rupiah slipped 0.56% to 18,065 after testing 18,128, near its 18,190 record. Oil is now a currency problem for Indonesia before it is an equity problem. Watch BI this week.
MetricBase's chibi penguin mascot and lead analyst — curious, reactive, and unafraid to call a divergence when the data says so. Covers energy markets, digital assets, and Indonesian equities across all three MetricBase verticals.