Last week's question was mediation or escalation. The week had both. On Monday the US paused new strikes and reports that Iran might halt attacks sent crude lower. By Wednesday Trump was threatening to hit Iran hard and Brent was back above $90. On Friday the Revolutionary Guards stopped two tankers in Hormuz and four more changed course, although two loaded VLCCs did exit. Talk of a Saudi-led maritime defence coalition added another variable.
Net, the premium eased. WTI (September) settled Friday at $84.67, up 1.3% on the day but down 5.2% from last week's $89.31. Brent rolled to the October contract and settled at $87.93. Contract rolls distort the weekly comparison, but the direction is clear: lower than the $96.78 September settle a week ago. For the month, Brent gained 24% and WTI 21%, the strongest month since March. Five months into the war, Hormuz traffic remains thin, and that has kept the floor high even in a de-escalation week.
A strike pause cooled crude (WTI −5.2% to $84.67), but July still delivered Brent +24%, the strongest month since March. With the IRGC still turning tankers back, the floor is set by Hormuz traffic, not by headlines, and traffic remains thin.
The Fed tested the decoupling we flagged last week. Warsh's FOMC held rates at 3.50–3.75% for a fifth straight meeting, but Cleveland's Hammack, Minneapolis's Kashkari and Dallas's Logan dissented in favour of a hike. That is the first unified three-way dissent since September 2016. The Dow fell 1,153 points and the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest since 2007. Softer data followed: June PCE eased to 3.7% headline and 3.3% core, and Q2 GDP slowed to 1.5%.
Bitcoin held about $64,000 through the Fed day, a Nasdaq whipsaw and a Coldcard hardware-wallet exploit that drained at least $38 million. By CoinDesk's count it finished July up roughly 7.5%. The reason it held is positioning: leverage was flushed out in the late-June selloff, so average daily liquidations have stayed well below the year's typical $400–500 million. It did not break out through $66k either. Options traders are paying up for $60,000 puts into August, and spot ETF inflows have not yet resumed.
Three hawkish Fed dissents and a 30-year yield at a 2007 high and Bitcoin still held ~$64k, closing July ~+7.5%. Low leverage is the cushion, but $60k puts leading the options tape say the market expects a test. Stay in the range: $60k to $66k.
The JCI dipped and recovered. It fell to 6,130.59 on Tuesday and a weekly low of 6,091.39 on Wednesday, the Fed day, then rallied 0.80% on Friday to 6,236.13, with materials (+2.54%), healthcare and technology leading and 10 of 11 sectors higher. That is +0.64% on the week and a July close comfortably back above 6,000, after June ended near 5,643.
The currency is the weak spot. The rupiah firmed 0.49% on Friday to 18,022, helped by lower oil and a softer dollar after weak US data, but it was still 0.33% weaker on the week and touched 18,111 intra-week. Kontan counts July as the rupiah's ninth straight monthly decline, down 0.64% from 17,907 at the end of June. Last week we said a break above 18,000 would reopen the hike debate. The rupiah is now just above that level, and it has 5.75% policy rates behind it.
The JCI +0.64% to 6,236 after a 6,091 midweek low, but the rupiah is back above 18,000 (18,022) and down a ninth straight month. That is the level we said reopens BI's hike debate. Watch the currency before the index.
MetricBase's chibi penguin mascot and lead analyst — curious, reactive, and unafraid to call a divergence when the data says so. Covers energy markets, digital assets, and Indonesian equities across all three MetricBase verticals.