Last week we said Hormuz traffic, not headlines, sets the floor. This week the headlines lowered the floor anyway, because they were about traffic. Iran and Oman worked on an agreement to define transit routes: inbound ships through Iranian waters, outbound through Omani waters. On Tuesday Bessent said an agreement to open Hormuz with freedom of movement could come "as soon as Wednesday", and Trump and Rubio also called a deal imminent. By Friday it still had not been announced.
Crude traded the expectation. Brent (October) rose just over 1% on Friday to $83.55 but was down 5.0% on the week from $87.93. WTI settled at $78.18, down 7.7% from $84.67. That is WTI's lowest Friday settle since July 10. The trade now depends on a signature. If the Iran–Oman routing plan is signed and ships move, crude has room to fall further. If it stalls again, as the June memorandum did, the move reverses.
WTI −7.7% to $78.18 on an Iran–Oman routing plan and "imminent" deal talk, with nothing signed. The market has priced a deal that has not happened yet. If it is signed, crude has further to fall. If not, June's memorandum is the precedent for how fast this reverses.
Bitcoin spent the week pinned near $64,000, unchanged on the week by Friday morning, with ETH at $1,903. Then July payrolls came in at −23,000 against an expected gain of about 80,000, the first loss since February. Unemployment fell to 4.1% only because the labour force shrank by 264,000, and wage growth slowed to 3.2%, the lowest since May 2021. Analysts said a September hike could be priced out entirely. BTC rose nearly 2% to about $65,200.
A week after three hawkish dissents, the data has turned against the hawks. That is the rate tailwind crypto lacked all spring. The internal signal is ETH: at $1,903 against BTC near $64,350, ETH/BTC is about 0.0296, up from roughly 0.026 in late June. Money is moving back out along the risk curve for the first time since the capitulation. The ceiling from our range is ~$66k. A payrolls miss has put Bitcoin right under it.
Payrolls −23K and wages at a five-year low hand crypto the rate tailwind it lacked all spring. BTC ~$65.2k, and ETH/BTC ~0.0296, up from ~0.026 in June: risk appetite is returning. A weekly close through ~$66k confirms it.
Indonesia got its best macro print in months. BPS reported Q2 GDP growth of 5.29% year-on-year, slower than Q1's 5.61% but above Q2 2025's 5.12%, with electricity and gas the fastest-growing sector at 10.81%. The JCI rallied 2.78% on the week to 6,409.65, including a 1.04% gain on Friday led by infrastructure, materials and technology. That is its highest level in three months, and more than 13% above the June 30 low of 5,643.
The rupiah stopped weakening. It traded between 17,850 and 18,059 during the week and closed Friday at 17,897, 0.15% firmer on the day and back below 18,000, about 0.7% stronger on the week. Lower oil and a softer dollar after the payrolls miss did most of the work. Last week we said a rupiah above 18,000 would reopen BI's hike debate. It is now back below. One test remains: MSCI's August index review, the first since June's warning.
The JCI +2.78% to 6,410, a three-month high, on 5.29% Q2 GDP, and the rupiah is back below 18,000 at 17,897. Cheaper oil plus a softer dollar is the best mix Indonesia has had since the war began. The August MSCI review is the next test of whether foreign money returns.
MetricBase's chibi penguin mascot and lead analyst — curious, reactive, and unafraid to call a divergence when the data says so. Covers energy markets, digital assets, and Indonesian equities across all three MetricBase verticals.