We asked whether the Iran–Oman routing plan would actually be signed. It was not, and Washington changed tack. Defense Secretary Hegseth said the Navy could maintain its blockade of Iranian ports "indefinitely" by rotating ships. Bessent said the US would apply measures "that have never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country". The approach has moved from strikes to siege. Iran is loading about 260,000 barrels a day for export in August, down more than 80% from a year earlier.
Crude took back most of last week's deal discount. Brent (October) settled Friday at $88.52, up 1.7% on the day and 5.9% from $83.55. WTI settled at $82.40, up 5.4% from $78.18. Both had dipped about 2% on Thursday before the blockade comments. The 60-day window in June's memorandum is running out, and Tehran's position is that Hormuz stays closed until the blockade and sanctions are lifted. Neither side is offering the other anything to sign.
No deal, and the US now promises an "indefinite" blockade and unprecedented economic isolation. Brent +5.9% to $88.52 takes back most of last week's deal discount. The approach has moved from strikes to siege, which keeps Hormuz closed for longer and supports a higher floor under crude.
The payrolls tailwind lasted a week. July CPI on Wednesday was exactly on consensus: +0.1% on the month, 3.4% annual, core 2.5%. Traders cut September hike odds to about 42%. That was not enough. Bitcoin never cleared the ~$66k ceiling, and by Friday it was back below $63,000 as WTI climbed above $82 and the 10-year yield rose to 4.66%. Spot ETFs saw their first back-to-back outflow days since late July, about $192 million.
Crypto.com's daily candle closed Friday at $62,993, about 3.4% below last Friday's ~$65,200. That is still inside the $62,000–$66,000 range that has held most of the summer. Two industry-specific headwinds appeared: Strategy disclosed a 1,690 BTC sale on Monday, and MSCI raised the prospect of excluding Strategy from its indices. The thing to notice is that CPI moved hike odds and not Bitcoin, while oil and yields moved Bitcoin. The market is trading the energy shock again.
An in-line 3.4% CPI cut hike odds to ~42% but not Bitcoin's losses: BTC closed Friday at $62,993 as oil and a 4.66% 10-year took over. Still inside the $62k–$66k summer range. Strategy's selling and the MSCI exclusion threat add specific pressure. Defensive at the bottom of the range.
MSCI's August review, the test we flagged, was a trim rather than a verdict. Announced on August 12, it left Indonesia's Emerging Market status unchanged, added no Indonesian names to the Global Standard index and removed two: CPIN (moved to Small Cap) and GOTO (deleted outright). Nine names left the Small Cap index, including ARTO, BUKA and SMGR. The JCI fell 1.13% on Thursday to 6,301.77 on profit-taking after the announcement.
Friday reversed it. President Prabowo's state-of-the-nation address and the 2027 budget proposal lifted the JCI 1.59% to 6,401.89, with all 11 sectors up, led by healthcare (+3.09%), property and energy. The index ended the week just 0.12% lower, holding near its three-month high. The rupiah firmed 0.28% on Friday to 17,827, up 0.39% on the week. It has now held below 18,000 for two weeks, despite Brent back near $90.
MSCI kept Indonesia in EM but dropped CPIN and GOTO from its Standard index. The JCI fell 1.13% on the news, then rallied 1.59% on Prabowo's budget address to finish flat at 6,402. The rupiah at 17,827 is holding up despite $88 Brent, which is the more important signal.
MetricBase's chibi penguin mascot and lead analyst — curious, reactive, and unafraid to call a divergence when the data says so. Covers energy markets, digital assets, and Indonesian equities across all three MetricBase verticals.