The memorandum that reopened Hormuz in June formally expired this week, and neither side moved to restart talks. Trump called on Tehran to raise the "white flag of surrender" and said he was in no rush to end the war. Iran's parliament speaker said Hormuz would stay closed until the US lifts the blockade, releases frozen assets and removes oil sanctions. On Thursday Bessent told CNBC that Washington would impose the "toughest sanctions in history" and threatened countries that support Iran.
Brent settled Friday at $94.39 (+$0.61) and WTI at $87.06 (+$0.23): Brent up 6.6% on the week from $88.52 and WTI up 5.7% from $82.40. That was the second straight weekly gain, taking both to their highest since late July. The earlier "deal discount" is gone. The market is now pricing an open-ended standoff: supply from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait stays curtailed while Hormuz stays shut, and the US has explicitly chosen sanctions over a settlement.
The US–Iran MoU expired with no talks scheduled, and Washington promised the "toughest sanctions in history". Brent +6.6% to $94.39, a second weekly gain. The market is pricing an open-ended standoff with Hormuz closed. $100 is back in range.
Bitcoin broke out of the $62k–$66k range decisively. From $62,993 last Friday, BTC added about 3% on Monday and Tuesday, then rose 7.1% on Wednesday as Treasury yields fell back sharply, 5.3% on Thursday as Trump pushed for the Clarity Act with the CEOs of Coinbase, Kraken, Robinhood, Ripple and Chainlink, and 7.3% on Friday. Crypto.com's daily candle closed Friday at $78,335, up 24.4% on the week. CNBC put short liquidations at about $2.7 billion, and spot ETFs drew their biggest inflows in months.
ETH did even better. It closed Friday at $2,516, up 33.8% from $1,881, and ETH/BTC rose to about 0.032. Since June we have used ETH/BTC to measure whether money is moving back out along the risk curve. It went from ~0.026 at the June lows to ~0.030 two weeks ago and ~0.032 now. The fundamental driver is regulatory: the Clarity Act has not passed, and Trump's call for a "fair version" points to the ethics dispute with Democrats that is still unresolved. The July FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, said many officials saw tightening as likely necessary if inflation does not decline. Crypto rallied anyway.
BTC +24.4% to $78,335 and ETH +33.8% to $2,516: the summer range broke on the Clarity Act push, lower yields and a $2.7B short squeeze. ETH/BTC ~0.032 confirms risk appetite. The bill has not passed, so the move now depends on Congress, and the Fed minutes still lean hawkish.
Bank Indonesia held the BI-Rate at 5.75% at its August 18–19 meeting, its second straight hold after 100 bp of hikes in May and June, with the facility rates unchanged at 4.75% and 6.50%. The rupiah responded well: it firmed 0.30% on Friday to 17,694 and 0.75% on the week, its strongest Friday close since at least early June. The drivers were a weaker dollar, the BI hold and solid domestic credit growth.
The JCI extended to new highs for the move. It jumped 1.68% on Thursday to 6,501.58, led by AMMN, BUMI and BRMS, and added 0.37% on Friday to 6,525.69, up 1.93% on the week. The index is now more than 15% above its June 30 low, and it is climbing with Brent back near $95. That combination was unthinkable in June. The difference is the currency: a rupiah below 17,700 is taking the oil shock without breaking.
BI held at 5.75%, the rupiah firmed to 17,694 (+0.75% wk), and the JCI rose +1.93% to 6,526, a new high for the move, with Brent near $95. The rupiah is what makes that possible. As long as it holds below 17,700, the equity rally can live with $90-plus oil.
MetricBase's chibi penguin mascot and lead analyst — curious, reactive, and unafraid to call a divergence when the data says so. Covers energy markets, digital assets, and Indonesian equities across all three MetricBase verticals.