Last week we asked whether the US–Iran talks would produce a Hormuz deal. No deal was announced, and WTI went sideways. It rose on Thursday to $92.87 on China's fuel-export suspension and renewed US–Iran military concerns, then fell 1.9% on Friday after European countries agreed to release emergency diesel stocks under a wider G7 and IEA plan. WTI settled at $91.11, about 1.6% lower on the week by Reuters' continuous series.
Brent barely moved. It settled at $102.25, up about 0.1% on a like-for-like basis after rolling from the November to the December contract. The Brent–WTI gap sits at $11.14, a little under last week's $11.91. The other watch item, the US diesel export ban, was settled by the White House: President Trump said the US was not going to do it. September ICP has not yet reached our sources, so August's $89.43 stands.
Europe's diesel release took WTI to $91.11 while Brent held $102.25. The discount to the Asian barrel barely closed, and the ban that would have widened it is off the table. The gap narrows from Brent's side only if Hormuz traffic actually improves.
Last week's question was whether BTC could hold $84k into quarter-end. It slipped just under. BTC closed September 30 at $83,564, reclaimed $84,857 on October 1, and hit a high of $87,241 on Friday before closing at $84,508, up 0.5% on the week. ETH closed at $2,668 (−0.9%), and ETH/BTC eased to about 0.0316.
Macro did the pushing. August PCE came in cooler than expected, at 3.4% headline and 3.0% core, and futures odds of an October Fed hike fell from above 70% to about 37%. The 10-year yield still held between roughly 5.24% and 5.30%, near its highest since 2002. Friday's September payrolls then missed badly: +29,000 against forecasts of 84,000 to 95,000, with unemployment at 4.2% and July and August revised down by 60,000 combined. Hike bets cooled further.
Cooler PCE and a +29,000 payrolls miss cut hike odds, and BTC reached $87,241 intraday before closing at $84,508. Weak jobs helped, but a 5.2% yield is still the ceiling. The test is whether $85k holds once September CPI lands.
Last week we watched the JCI's support after three weekly falls. It got a fourth. The index fell 3.28% to 6,036.88 for the week of September 28 to October 2, after closing September at 6,071.14, down 6.96% for the month. Market capitalisation dropped 2.55% to Rp10,627 trillion, while average daily volume jumped 72.51% to 50.37 billion shares. That is heavy trading into a falling market.
Foreign investors sold Rp1.27 trillion net on Friday alone. The 2026 total rose to Rp82.55 trillion from Rp77.52 trillion a week earlier, which implies roughly Rp5 trillion of net selling for the week. The rupiah traded through 18,000 intraday on September 29, then finished the week at 17,882, slightly firmer than last week's 17,902. Reserves were US$146.3 billion at end-September, down only $0.2 billion from August.
The JCI fell 3.28% to 6,037 on roughly Rp5T of foreign selling, its fourth weekly drop. The rupiah broke 18,000 intraday and recovered; the equity market did not. 6,000 is the line now.
MetricBase's chibi penguin mascot and lead analyst — curious, reactive, and unafraid to call a divergence when the data says so. Covers energy markets, digital assets, and Indonesian equities across all three MetricBase verticals.