Last week we watched whether Brent would stay above $100. It did. Brent dipped to $100.58 on Tuesday, then jumped $4.08, or 4.1%, to $104.28 on Thursday on Middle East tensions, and settled Friday at $104.72, up 2.4% on the week. WTI settled at $91.85, up 0.8%. The Brent–WTI gap widened again, to $12.87.
Two things pulled in opposite directions. Hurricane Isaias shut in more than 70% of US Gulf of Mexico offshore output, nearly 1.5 million barrels a day, which supports prices. Against that, Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the November midterms and called the talks "constructive". No deal has been announced. September ICP has not yet reached our sources; August's $89.43 stands.
A hurricane and Middle East headlines took Brent up 2.4% to $104.72 while WTI added 0.8% to $91.85. Diplomacy capped the downside, but it has not produced a deal. The gap is back above $12.
Last week's question was whether BTC could hold $85k. It could not. BTC opened the week at its high of $86,992 on Monday and closed Friday at $82,561, down 2.3%, after a low of $80,320 on Thursday. ETH did worse, closing at $2,486 (−6.8%), and ETH/BTC fell to about 0.0301 from 0.0316.
The cause was bonds, not the payrolls miss. The 10-year yield peaked at 5.31% this week, its highest since 2002, before easing to about 5.24% on Friday, and the 30-year reached about 5.7%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $119 million on Tuesday, then lost $485 million on Wednesday, their largest one-day outflow since June 25. Most Fed officials still expect another hike by year end.
A 5.31% 10-year and a $485M ETF outflow took BTC from $86,992 to a $80,320 low before it closed at $82,561. Bitcoin is a rates trade right now, and ETH is the weaker leg of it. Next test: September CPI on Wednesday.
Last week we called 6,000 the line. It held. The JCI rose 0.94% to 6,093.76, snapping four weekly falls. It jumped 1.21% to 6,192.93 on Tuesday, gave that back to close Thursday at 6,031.28, then rose 1.04% on Friday, with ten of eleven sectors higher. Average daily trading value rose 28.52%.
Foreigners did not join the bounce. Net selling for the week was Rp2.4 to Rp3.8 trillion depending on the source, taking the 2026 total to about Rp85 trillion, though they were net buyers of Rp29.63 billion on Friday. The rupiah stayed under 18,000 and closed at 17,899, up 0.09% on the day and 0.1% weaker on the week. Reserves were US$146.3 billion at end-September, with import cover of 5.3 months.
The JCI rose 0.94% to 6,094 for the first weekly gain after four falls, but foreigners still sold more than Rp2T net. A bounce without foreign money is a short-covering rally until proven otherwise. 6,200 is resistance, 6,000 support.
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