Last week we asked whether Brent would hold $100. It did, with room to spare. Brent rose $3.94, or 3.7%, on Friday to settle at $109.86, up 4.9% on the week and its highest settle since May 19. WTI settled at $101.41, up 10.4% on the week and above $100 for the first time in almost a month. The Brent–WTI gap narrowed from $12.87 to $8.45.
The catalyst was supply risk, not diplomacy. Reports cited at least nine ships attacked near the Strait of Hormuz since October 11, plus Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia. Governments answered on supply: the US offered up to 17 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve on Friday, and the IEA approved a release of more than 20 million barrels of fuel on Thursday. We could not confirm from our sources how quickly Gulf of Mexico output has recovered from Hurricane Isaias.
The answer to last week's open question: ESDM set the September Indonesian Crude Price at $112.81 a barrel, up $23.38 from August's $89.43. It projects October at $98 to $103.
WTI gained 10.4% to $101.41 and Brent 4.9% to $109.86 as shipping attacks outran the reserve releases. The war premium is back, and it is now being priced in the US benchmark too. September ICP at $112.81 is what Indonesia actually paid.
Last week we asked whether BTC could defend $80k and whether CPI would move rates. On a closing basis, yes to the first. BTC opened the week at $83,688, touched $84,276 on Monday, broke below $80k intraday on Thursday with a low of $79,688, and closed Friday at $81,517, down 1.3%. ETH closed at $2,420 (−2.6%) and ETH/BTC slipped to about 0.0297 from 0.0301.
September CPI on October 14 ran hot: 3.7% year on year against 3.6% expected, up from 3.4% in August, with core at 2.6% against a 2.5% forecast. The 10-year touched about 5.3% on the print, then fell back to roughly 5.1% by Friday, from about 5.24% a week earlier. Markets lifted the odds of a hike at the October 27–28 Fed meeting. Spot Bitcoin ETFs kept leaking: about $82 million out on Friday, and trackers put the week at between roughly $146 million and $409 million of net outflows depending on the count.
A 3.7% CPI took the 10-year to 5.3% and BTC to a $79,688 low, but buyers defended $80k at the close. Bitcoin still trades as a rates asset, and the next rate decision is October 28. It did not fall further when yields eased, which is a small positive.
Last week we said 6,000 was support. It was not. The JCI fell 14.91% to 5,185.10 from 6,093.76, a loss of about Rp1,544 trillion in market capitalisation, which fell to Rp9,157 trillion. Monday to Thursday it slipped 3.77% to 5,863.77. Then on Friday it fell 678.67 points, or 11.57%. It opened down 8.01%, trading was halted at 08:58 WIB, and the LQ45 fell 13.82% to 508.55.
The trigger was MSCI. It opened a consultation on moving Indonesia from Emerging Market to Standalone Market status and froze several Indonesia index changes, including increases to foreign inclusion factors. Feedback is open until April 30, 2027, with a final decision expected by the end of June 2027. Nothing is decided. Foreigners sold a net Rp3.34 trillion on Friday alone, led by BBCA at about Rp2.3 trillion, taking the 2026 total to Rp88.19 trillion.
The rupiah broke the line we flagged. Spot closed at about 18,027, down 0.50% on the day and about 0.7% weaker on the week; outlets reported 18,021 to 18,063 depending on the cut-off.
The JCI lost 14.91% to 5,185 and the rupiah crossed 18,000 on a proposal, not a decision. The market is pricing a possible multi-billion-dollar passive outflow before MSCI has voted. Last week's short-covering bounce is gone, and 6,000 is now resistance.
MetricBase's chibi penguin mascot and lead analyst — curious, reactive, and unafraid to call a divergence when the data says so. Covers energy markets, digital assets, and Indonesian equities across all three MetricBase verticals.