Last week we asked whether the reserve releases would cap Brent near $110. They did not. Brent rose 3.1% on Friday to settle at $116.72, up about 6.2% on the week, its third straight weekly gain and its highest settle since April 29. WTI settled at $103.27, up 3.8% on the day and about 1.8% on the week. The Brent–WTI gap widened from $8.45 to $13.45, reversing most of last week's narrowing.
CNBC tied the move to Middle East tension, with investors positioning for possible renewed US strikes on Iran in the coming weeks. Analysts also pointed to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. We could not confirm from our sources any new shipping incidents near Hormuz this week, and we could not find an October Indonesian Crude Price print. ESDM's projection was $98 to $103; with Brent at $116.72, the risk to that range is to the upside.
Brent gained 6.2% to $116.72 and WTI 1.8% to $103.27. Last week's reserve releases did not cap the price; the market is paying for the risk of renewed US–Iran fighting, and the premium is accruing mostly to Brent. The spread is back above $13.
Last week we asked whether BTC could close above $80k. It did, every day. BTC opened the week at $81,856, rallied to $84,890 on Wednesday, then sold off after Wednesday's close and finished Friday at $81,096, down 0.5%. The weekday low was $80,422. ETH closed at $2,385 (−1.5%) and ETH/BTC slipped to about 0.0294 from 0.0297. The line did break at the weekend: Saturday printed a low of $79,128, so the $80k defence is no longer clean.
Rates helped, then stopped helping. The 10-year eased to about 5.0% by Friday from about 5.1%, with the 2-year near 4.69%. As of October 21, markets priced roughly an 85% chance that the Fed holds at the October 27–28 meeting and about 75% odds of a December hike. Wall Street fell on Friday as oil rose: the Dow lost 652.82 points, or 1.23%, to 52,215, and the S&P 500 lost 0.52%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in a provisional net $301 million on the week per Farside data: about $1.07 billion over Monday to Wednesday, then $774 million out on Thursday and Friday. Ether ETFs lost a provisional $221 million.
BTC closed above $80k on every session but ETF flows reversed from +$1.07B to −$774M in two days, and the weekend low of $79,128 broke the level. Bitcoin is holding on rates relief, not on demand, and October 28 tests it.
Last week we said 6,000 was now resistance and 5,000 the line to watch. The JCI rebounded 4.90% to 5,439.26 from 5,185.11, lifting market capitalisation by more than Rp400 trillion to Rp9,583 trillion. It rose 0.95% on Friday, with all 11 sectors higher and the big banks BBRI and BMRI doing most of the lifting, plus BREN. It is still about 11% below the 6,094 close from before the MSCI announcement, and down about 38% year to date.
The bounce was domestic. Foreigners sold again: Rp1.28 trillion net on Friday and more than Rp6 trillion on the week (Katadata put it at Rp6.67 trillion, other outlets at Rp8.72 trillion), taking the 2026 total to Rp94.87 trillion. MSCI has not moved. The exchange asked it for clarification and says the status is unchanged, and the consultation still runs to April 30, 2027. Separately, press reports say that from November 2 the IDX will exclude High Shareholding Concentration stocks from the index calculation.
Bank Indonesia surprised on October 21. It held the BI-Rate at 5.75% when most economists expected a hike to 6.00%, raised the Deposit Facility rate to 5.00%, and said it will begin gradually lowering reserve requirements in November. The rupiah did not take the view well: spot closed at 18,080, down 0.11% on the day and about 0.29% on the week, its weakest close in these briefs, after last week's break of 18,000.
The JCI rebounded 4.90% to 5,439 while foreigners sold more than Rp6 trillion and the rupiah weakened to 18,080. Domestic money bought the dip; foreign money has not returned, and the rupiah says so. BI's hold, not a hike, leaves the currency exposed.
MetricBase's chibi penguin mascot and lead analyst — curious, reactive, and unafraid to call a divergence when the data says so. Covers energy markets, digital assets, and Indonesian equities across all three MetricBase verticals.