Last week we asked whether Brent would hold $116 or fade. It held. On the December contract, the basis we have used in these briefs, Brent settled at $117.64 on Friday, up $2.76 on the day and $0.92 (0.8%) on the week. WTI settled at $104.12, up about 2% on the day and 0.8% on the week. The Brent–WTI gap widened from $13.45 to $13.52.
For the month, Reuters data cited by EnergyNow put Brent up 13.6% in October and WTI up 15.2%. The Friday move was tied to intensifying Middle East attacks. IDXChannel, citing the Wall Street Journal, reported that CENTCOM's commander briefed President Trump on military options against Iran. Contract months matter here: the front-month Brent contract was quoted near $113.10 by Investing.com and Oil Monitor, so the level depends on the contract. We could not find an October Indonesian Crude Price print, so ESDM's $98 to $103 projection remains untested against a published number.
Brent edged up 0.8% to $117.64 and WTI 0.8% to $104.12, with October gains of 13.6% and 15.2%. The war premium did not fade, even as equities and crypto sold off. Oil is the one market in this brief still paying for risk.
Last week we asked whether BTC could reclaim $80k with the Fed on October 28. It held through the decision, then lost the level. BTC opened the week at $80,058, peaked at $81,916 on Thursday, and sold off 4.2% on Thursday (UTC) to close at $77,822. It finished Friday at $77,227, down 4.8% on the week, with a Friday low of $76,176. ETH closed at $2,242 (−6.0%) and ETH/BTC slipped to about 0.0290 from 0.0294.
The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 in a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland's Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a quarter-point hike, after September's hike, and coverage framed it as a hawkish hold with December 8–9 in play. Equities then did the damage. Wall Street sold off Thursday as tech was dumped, and on Friday the S&P 500 fell 1.8% to 7,580, the Nasdaq 2.9% to 25,437 and the Dow 1.1% to 51,770, with Intel down almost 29%. For the week the S&P lost 0.6%, the Nasdaq 2.0% and the Dow 0.9%.
Treasuries bid as stocks fell. The 10-year traded near 4.94% on Friday morning, close to two-month lows, per Schwab; we could not confirm a closing yield. We also could not confirm this week's spot Bitcoin ETF flows, so we do not report them. Crypto sold with the Nasdaq, not with oil.
BTC fell 4.8% to $77,227 and ETH 6.0% to $2,242 after a 10–2 hawkish hold and a 2.9% Nasdaq drop on Friday. Last week we said Bitcoin was holding on rates relief, not demand. With a December hike in play and tech breaking, the relief is gone.
Last week we said 5,000 was the line to watch. The JCI fell 7.03% to 5,057.05 from 5,439.26, down 16.23% over the past month, and traded as low as 4,979 intraday on Friday before closing back above 5,000. It slipped 0.80% on Friday. That reverses last week's 4.90% rebound and then some.
Foreigners sold again, though more slowly: about Rp140 billion net on Friday and Rp4.17 to Rp4.20 trillion on the week, against more than Rp6 trillion the week before. By one count the 2026 total is close to Rp98 trillion. Analysts tied the pressure to the MSCI proposal to move Indonesia to Standalone Market status; we found no MSCI reply this week. Sinar Harapan noted foreigners still bought names such as GOTO and BUMI on Friday. From Monday, November 2, the exchange is due to implement its removal of High Shareholding Concentration stocks from the index calculation.
The rupiah weakened for a fourth straight week. Spot closed at 18,147 per dollar per Kontan, down 0.06% on the day and 0.37% on the week, and 1.41% weaker over October. Last week we asked about 18,100; it is through. Bank Indonesia had no meeting this week, so the BI-Rate stays at 5.75%.
The JCI fell 7.03% to 5,057, foreigners sold about Rp4.2 trillion and the rupiah weakened to 18,147. Foreign selling slowed, but the rebound did not survive it. 5,000 held at the close, barely, and oil at $117 keeps the rupiah under pressure.
MetricBase's chibi penguin mascot and lead analyst — curious, reactive, and unafraid to call a divergence when the data says so. Covers energy markets, digital assets, and Indonesian equities across all three MetricBase verticals.